Math-Bio: This Orchard is on Fire -- A Spatio-Temporal Model of Blossom Blight

It’s my great pleasure to announce the continuation of our weekly Math-Bio seminar series! As a reminder, these meetings take place every Wednesday at 2:00 pm (Pacific Time) in the PIMS lounge (ESB 4133). PIMS tea will follow the seminar at around 3:00 pm.

This presentation will be held in person, so I encourage everyone who can attend to join us.

Attend online:
https://ubc.zoom.us/j/64671573478?pwd=J1kiOTYqD0TukMjoVRpTWfBbqSr5TM.1
Meeting ID: 646 7157 3478
Passcode: 979571

Fire blight is a bacterial plant disease that affects apple and pear trees. We present a mathematical model for its spread in an orchard during bloom (sometimes referred to as blossom blight). This is a PDE-ODE coupled system, consisting of two semilinear PDEs for the pathogen, coupled to a system of three ODEs for the stationary hosts (of which one decouples). Exploratory numerical simulations suggest the existence of travelling waves, which we subsequently prove, under some conditions on parameters, using the method of upper and lower bounds and Schauder’s fix point theorem. Our results are likely not optimal in the sense that our constraints on parameters, which can be interpreted biologically, are sufficient for the existence of travelling waves, but probably not necessary. Possible implications for fire blight biology and management are discussed.