Homotopy Theory of Probability Spaces

The notion of a homotopy probability space is an enrichment of the notion of an algebraic probability space with ideas from algebraic homotopy theory. This enrichment uses a characterization of the laws of random variables in a probability space in terms of symmetries of the expectation. The laws of random variables are reinterpreted as invariants of the homotopy types of infinity morphisms between certain homotopy algebras. The relevant category of homotopy algebras is determined by the appropriate notion of independence for the underlying probability theory. This theory will be both a natural generalization and an effective computational tool for the study of classical algebraic probability spaces, while keeping the same central limit.

This talk is focused on the commutative case, where the laws of random variables are also described in terms of certain affinely flat structures on the formal moduli space of a naturally defined family attached to the given algebraic probability space, which the relevant category is the homotopy category of \(L_\infty\)-algebras. Time permitting, I will explain a example of homotopy probability space which law corresponds to variations Hodge structures on a toric hypersurface.