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 Events
UBC
Fri 16 Oct 2020, 3:00pm
Department Colloquium
Zoom
TBA
Zoom
Fri 16 Oct 2020, 3:00pm-4:00pm

Abstract

TBA
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Northwestern University
Fri 30 Oct 2020, 3:00pm SPECIAL
Department Colloquium
online -- TBA
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. elections: a compartmental modeling approach
online -- TBA
Fri 30 Oct 2020, 3:00pm-4:00pm

Abstract

Election dynamics are a rich complex system, and forecasting next month's U.S. elections is an exciting, high-stakes problem with many sources of subjectivity and uncertainty. In this talk, we take a dynamical-systems perspective on election forecasting, with the goal of helping to shed light on the forecast process and raise questions for future work. By adapting a well-studied model from epidemiology, we show how to combine a compartmental approach with polling data to produce forecasts of presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level. Our results for the last 16 years of U.S. elections are largely in agreement with those of popular analysts, and we apply our model to forecast the upcoming U.S. elections on 3 November 2020. We also use our modeling framework to explore how different methods for handling polling data and accounting for uncertainty affect forecasts.

This is joint work with Samuel Chian, William He, Christopher Lee, Daniel Linder, Mason Porter, and Grzegorz Rempala.

Note for Attendees

 Rising Stars Colloquium
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ETH Zurich, will move to NYU
Fri 20 Nov 2020, 3:00pm
Department Colloquium
TBD
Faculty of Science Early Career Invited Lecture: TBD
TBD
Fri 20 Nov 2020, 3:00pm-3:50pm

Abstract


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UC Irvine
Fri 19 Mar 2021, 3:00pm
Department Colloquium
TBA
PIMS-UBC Rising Star Colloquium
TBA
Fri 19 Mar 2021, 3:00pm-4:00pm

Abstract

 
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Ciprian Manolescu
Stanford University
Fri 26 Mar 2021, 3:00pm
Department Colloquium
ESB1012
PIMS-UBC Distinguished Colloquium
ESB1012
Fri 26 Mar 2021, 3:00pm-4:00pm

Abstract

 
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