Development of a Burst-Death Model for Experimental Evolution - by Jennifer Hubbarde.
Estimating the fixation probability of an initially rare beneficial mutation is fundamental to our understanding of adaptation. Such estimates are critical to studies of evolution under controlled laboratory conditions, and are also essential for predicting the rate of adaptation of natural populations - for example the rate of adaptation in response to environmental change, or the rate of emergence of novel, or drug resistant, pathogens. Recent work has emphasized that fixation probabilities are extremely sensitive to the underlying life history model. In this talk, I will develop a "burst-death" life history model, in analogy to the well-studied birth-death process, in which lifetimes are exponentially-distributed, and when an individual reproduces, a "burst" of a fixed number of offspring is produced. Using this model, we can gain new estimates of the fixation probability of a beneficial mutation in a virus population.